In a 25 March communiqué Raul Reyes, spokesperson of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), announced their decision to meet a group of seven Representatives from the United States House of Congress. The objective of the meeting would be that of organising a ‘humanitarian exchange’ that provides for the release of hostages in exchange for the release of top level members of FARC.

The US Representatives (all Democrats) initiative is part of a process of negotiations with the left-wing guerrillas organised by France, Spain, Seitzerland and the Columbian High Commissioner for Peace, Luis Carlos Restrepo. On 8 March the American legislators sent a letter to the negotiators asking to participate as guarantors in the negotiations that the three countries have been conducting since 2005. The initiative was supported by the relatives of the Columbian politicians kidnapped by FARC, a stance in contrast with Alvaro Uribe’s Government’s policy that imposes military action as a means of liberating hostages. The negotiations are at a stall due to the refusal of the guerrillas to accept the conditions imposed in regards to control of the territory where the meeting and prisoner exchanges are to take place. In particular FARC have insisted the Armed Forces abandon the municipalities of Florida and Pradera.

The involvement of Congressmen Jim McGovern, Sam Farr, Raúl Grijalva, Peter Welch, Maurice Hinchey, William Delahunt, and Congresswoman Janice Schakowsky (all representatives of the new Democrat majority) could unlock the negotiations between the Columbian State and FARC. The Congressmen’s initiative represents the first official step of a diplomatic line diverse from that promoted by the Bush Administration; one that calls for a firm backing of the hard-line imposed by Uribe and a 3,9 billion dollar refinancing of Plan Colombia until 2013.

Roberto Stefanini

On 29 March, after two months of intermittent urban warfare, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) authorities declared the wish to rid the country of the anti-government militias that control vast parts of the city. This desire was put into act the morning of 30 March through a massive air and land offensive.

The war that is being conducted in Mogadishu – that has caused at least 150 deaths in three days and obliged 56.00 to flee – is a conflict between Government troops, supported by the Ethiopian army and an alliance between the Islamic Court militias and the highly anti-Ethiopian Hawiye clan. The Hawiye comprise most of the commercial land business class of Mogadishu and for some time have had relations with the radical Islamic forces. It is therefore no surprise that they have been penalised in the formation of the TFG; for the greater part pro-Ethiopian and dominated President Abdullahi Yusuf ‘s clan, the Darood. The Islamist forces have joined the inter clan clashes – on their own they would not have been able to defeat the TFG and the Ethiopian forces – and tied their objectives to that of the Hawiye, just as happened in Iraq when al-Qaeda militants joined the Sunni cause.

Currently the Sunni-Jihadi alliance in Iraq has been partially dissolved due to the Sunni’s realising that they would gain no long-term benefits from and alliance with Islamist terrorists. This decision was reached after three years of violent armed conflict and indiscriminate massacres: in the case that Somalia follows this path then the Iraqi scenario could result as being a reference model.

Giorgio Musso

Over the last few days the Ukrainian President has declared himself as being ready to dissolve Parliament and announce early elections. The reason for his decision lies in the coalition Government, led by his pro-Russian rival Yanukovich, attempt to enlarge its majority by corrupting opposition parliamentarians. According to Yushchenko it is a political strategy that in addition to not respecting the electors choices is also anti-constitutional.

The President’s declaration came after the Speaker of the House, Moroz, announced that 11 parliamentarians had passed from the opposition to the government coalition. Opposition members believe that it is illegal. The constitution states that government coalitions must be formed according to party level decisions and not those of individuals. The 6 parliamentarians belonging to Yushchenenko’s party and the 5 belonging to his ex-ally Tymoshenko’s party were persuaded to change sides through the offer of large sums of money, actions that are illegal. In order to dissolve Parliament the President needs the authorisation of the Constitutional Court. This latest battle between the two major players in the Ukrainian political scenario, one pro-western, the other pro-Russian, will depend on the judicial organisation’s decision. According to the leader of the governing coalition, that following the events of 23 March declared itself as being a Government of national unity, the President’s declarations will not achieve any result in the Constitutional Court.

On 31 March, notwithstanding the decisions of the judicial authorities, in Kiev and in other cities, a number of demonstrations were held. On one hand the supporters of the Orange Revolution, led by Tymoshenko, and on the other the supporters of the Government. The fight for anticipated elections could heal the wounds amongst the pro-western block but at the same time a negative decision by the Constitutional Court would guarantee an important victory for Yanukovich. The objective of the ex-candidate to the Presidency is that of obtaining a 300 parliamentarian majority in the Rada. This represents the majority require to amend the Constitution and reduce Presidential powers thus strengthening those of the Prime Minister.

Felice Di Leo

On 30 March, Japan began the process of implementing a PAC-3 (Patriot Advanced Capability 3) missile system for defence against missile attacks. The two Patriot batteries were installed in the Iruma base, a little north of Tokyo, to protect the capitals principal buildings. The defence system is part of a more ample project that provides for, within 2010, the installation of ulterior PAC-3 in ten diverse Japanese bases.

The decision to strengthen national defences was given further impetus by Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions and missile tests last year. The choice of bases illustrates how much Tokyo fears North Korea; from the most northern in Kasumigaura and Narashino (both, like Iruma, close to Tokyo) and Takayama to the most southern in Tsuiki and Koradai, all the bases are localised close to the Korean peninsula. The PAC-3 system is the latest generation of the ground-to-air Patriot missile defence systems. Each battery is comprised of two launchers, each with 8 launch ready missiles which have a 20Km range and are capable of hitting and neutralising even nuclear armed missiles like the North Korean Taepodong. Even if Iruma is not the only missile defence system present in Japan (another is planned for the American air base, Kadena, in Okinawa) it represents the first entirely Japanese. This confirms Tokyo’s desire to reach maturity and full autonomy in the National defence sector; a political program launched by Koizuni and followed by Abe’s Government.

The impact that the program will have on regional geopolitical balances is clear. Even if the system is for self defence Shinzo Abe’s moves towards a Japan ever less dependant on American military protection worries neighbouring countries. The ever increasing sense of Japanese nationalism is bringing to the surface old wounds and could accelerate a course towards arms that already sees, for example, China as capable of launching anti-satellite missiles and decided upon a yearly increase in defence spending; naval and aerial above all.

Luca Alfieri

During the Arab League Summit, held in Riyadh on 29-29 March, the leaders of the Arab League officially launched the peace initiative, initially approved in 2002, that creates the basis for a definitive normalisation to relations between Israel and the Arab nations. The initiative is conditioned by the withdrawal of Israeli troops to the 1967 border and the creation of an independent Palestinian State.

The declarations, which come at a distance of almost two months from the Mecca agreements, represent yet another sign of willingness, on the part of the moderate Arab countries, to deal with Israel and constitute an unrepeatable occasion in which to restart peace negotiations. In an extremely delicate moment as regards Iran and the risk of extremist clashes caused by regional tensions, the Sunni diplomatic manoeuvres represent a historical realignment and put Israel in front of a series of difficult choices. Notwithstanding the fact that Israeli public opinion, as well as that of a number of politicians – amongst whom the Foreign Minister, Livni – seem to be in favour of the Arab proposal, an unconditional acceptance on the part of Israel seems highly unlikely. In addition the ‘right to return’ of the Palestinian refugees, and the creation of an independent Palestinian State, are solutions that result difficult to negotiate. The United States, with the support of the European Union, could attempt to make a few changes to the most delicate points in the text of the declaration: in this fashion the Arab Quartet would be recognised as guarantor of an agreement proposal supported by the United Nations and the International Quartet. The creation, decided in Riyadh, of an ad hoc commission to present the peace initiative could thus play a crucial role in determining the terms of the future negotiations.

King Abdullah’s initiative places the peace process in a renewed multilateral context, entrusting the process to the Arab League and marginalising, for the moment, both Hamas and Fatah; a choice that could have a positive impact on negotiations with Israel. All considered Syria represents a fundamental regional actor; however, for the time being Damascus has been excluded from the negotiations. The most important decision lies with Israel, any refusal of the proposals would close the opportunities for dialogue and send the region into a spiral of violence.

Giovanni Faleg