Weekly Analysis: 17/2007
The ‘Weekly Analysis’ (available in the ‘Weekly’ section of the Equilibri.net home page, or in the pop-up menu) is published every Monday and contains information from each geographical region. The analysis of the principal and most significant events supply a clear and precise view of international relations through examining both actual and future scenarios.
Equilibri.net (23 April 2007)
The Nigerian Presidential elections were held on 21 April. According to the latest results the winner appears to be Umaru Yar'Adua, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate. The PDP is led by Olesegun Obasanjo who was Nigeria’s President for eight years. Umaru Yar'Adua’s opponents have expressed their anger and claimed that the election results were manipulated. The voting took place in a climate of disorder, in many areas voting started late and in others did not take place at all.
The Presidential elections were chaotic and on occasions degenerated into violence.The major parties have expressed their intention to appeal to the Nigerian Electoral Commission requesting that the elections be invalidated. In a number of States the local population did not have the opportunity to vote and, above all, voting was characterised by fear, violence, intimidation, and fraud. The European Union has expressed a series of doubts, openly declaring that the 21 April vote cannot be considered credible and that EU officials witnessed acts of violence and the intromission of PDP members during the scrutiny process.
The consequences of the vote will strongly influence Nigeria’s internal political balance, one which over the last eight years, under the guide of Olesegun Obasanjo, has been facing a delicate phase of institutional transition. Nigeria is a country plagued by internal conflicts and social disorder; the elections were meant to have represented a demonstration of the results obtained by the process of democratisation implemented by Obasanjo. The possibility that the electoral process is suspended and a new round of voting organised could through the country into chaos, leaving space for the violent explosion of dormant political, social, ethnic and religious conflicts.
Flavia Perrone
The Presidential elections were chaotic and on occasions degenerated into violence.The major parties have expressed their intention to appeal to the Nigerian Electoral Commission requesting that the elections be invalidated. In a number of States the local population did not have the opportunity to vote and, above all, voting was characterised by fear, violence, intimidation, and fraud. The European Union has expressed a series of doubts, openly declaring that the 21 April vote cannot be considered credible and that EU officials witnessed acts of violence and the intromission of PDP members during the scrutiny process.
The consequences of the vote will strongly influence Nigeria’s internal political balance, one which over the last eight years, under the guide of Olesegun Obasanjo, has been facing a delicate phase of institutional transition. Nigeria is a country plagued by internal conflicts and social disorder; the elections were meant to have represented a demonstration of the results obtained by the process of democratisation implemented by Obasanjo. The possibility that the electoral process is suspended and a new round of voting organised could through the country into chaos, leaving space for the violent explosion of dormant political, social, ethnic and religious conflicts.
Flavia Perrone
Venezuela: The first South American Energy Summit
On 16 and 17 April the Venezuelan ‘Isla Margarita’ hosted 11 regional Heads of State during the first ever South American Energy Summit. In the days leading up to the Summit a split between the hydrocarbon exporting countries and those investing in biofuels was feared. The ‘clash’ was avoided, however, there were disagreements regarding a series of projects aimed at economic and energy integration.
The Summit’s political agenda was dominated by the projects proposed by Venezuela and Bolivia. Work began by examining the region’s energy resources with the objective of defining mechanisms of designating a proportion of the revenue derived from the sale of fuels to the fight against poverty. On pressure from Venezuela the Comunidad Sudamericana de Naciones changed name to the Unión Suramericana de Naciones (UNASUR), the secretariat will be based in Quito. Amongst the projects discussed during the Summit was the proposal to form a ‘gas OPEC’, a cartel comprised of the gas producing countries, the Gran Gasoducto del Sur and the Banco del Sur. Brazilian negotiators, acting in a very pragmatic fashion, blocked an initiative – launched by Venezuela and Cuba – against the development of biofuels which are viewed as a threat to the environment and food production. In addition the Brazilian Government announced its objections to the creation of a gas cartel, viewing it as a potential threat to Brazil’s energy security.
Notwithstanding disagreements on a number of macro projects the first South American Energy Summit represents another step towards south American political integration. In the medium-term Venezuela will attempt to further develop regional agreements using energy supplies as a bargaining tool. The countries that need greater security in this sector, especially the four founders of Mercosur, will be obliged to participate in the process.
Roberto Stefanini
The Summit’s political agenda was dominated by the projects proposed by Venezuela and Bolivia. Work began by examining the region’s energy resources with the objective of defining mechanisms of designating a proportion of the revenue derived from the sale of fuels to the fight against poverty. On pressure from Venezuela the Comunidad Sudamericana de Naciones changed name to the Unión Suramericana de Naciones (UNASUR), the secretariat will be based in Quito. Amongst the projects discussed during the Summit was the proposal to form a ‘gas OPEC’, a cartel comprised of the gas producing countries, the Gran Gasoducto del Sur and the Banco del Sur. Brazilian negotiators, acting in a very pragmatic fashion, blocked an initiative – launched by Venezuela and Cuba – against the development of biofuels which are viewed as a threat to the environment and food production. In addition the Brazilian Government announced its objections to the creation of a gas cartel, viewing it as a potential threat to Brazil’s energy security.
Notwithstanding disagreements on a number of macro projects the first South American Energy Summit represents another step towards south American political integration. In the medium-term Venezuela will attempt to further develop regional agreements using energy supplies as a bargaining tool. The countries that need greater security in this sector, especially the four founders of Mercosur, will be obliged to participate in the process.
Roberto Stefanini
Romania: Basescu’s removal opens grave political and economic uncertainties
Accused of abuse of power and 19 other charges, the Rumanian President, Traian Basescu, was suspended last Thursday. The impeachment motion, presented by the Social Democrat opposition and its leader, was approved in Parliament by a vote of 322 in favour, 108 against, and 10 abstentions. The Constitutional Court validated the motion. The country now faces a period of instability and institutional uncertainty.
In accordance to the Rumanian Constitution the President will be suspended from his duties for a period of 30 days, after this a referendum will decide his fate. Should the referendum result in his removal then Presidential elections have to be held within 3 months. Basescu, who has strong popular support (around 50%), feels sure of winning and eventual election. In the meantime his position has been filled ad interim by Nicolae Vacariou, the President of the Senate and very close to Tariceanu. The ex-Presidents supporters suspect a plot: his fight against corruption and the introduction of reforms in the justice sector are ‘annoying’ a number of political adversaries who, through having him suspended, hope to remove him entirely. His departure would be accompanied by that of several ambitions that Rumania cultivates and that its formal entry into the EU is not enough to guarantee.
The crisis involves a number of fronts. The USA feat the loss of a precious ally, especially in light of the fact that the new ‘Tariceanu Government’ has stated that it will remove its troops from Iraq within the year. The business community considers the political instability a threat to investments which, compared to 2006, are already in decline. Brussels, from where experts will be sent to Rumania over the next few days, fears a slowing of the reform process and is threatening the application of a clause that would halt the several million euros of structural funds that have been promised. In this ‘vacuum’ new and old nationalist parties, who are against the EU’s values, have found ample room for manoeuvre. Basescu’s voluntary resignation, which could be presented in the next few days, could reduce the length of the institutional crisis but would not eliminate a period of uncertainty and instability that is creating more worries for politicians than Bucharest is prepared to admit.
Elisabetta Sartorel
In accordance to the Rumanian Constitution the President will be suspended from his duties for a period of 30 days, after this a referendum will decide his fate. Should the referendum result in his removal then Presidential elections have to be held within 3 months. Basescu, who has strong popular support (around 50%), feels sure of winning and eventual election. In the meantime his position has been filled ad interim by Nicolae Vacariou, the President of the Senate and very close to Tariceanu. The ex-Presidents supporters suspect a plot: his fight against corruption and the introduction of reforms in the justice sector are ‘annoying’ a number of political adversaries who, through having him suspended, hope to remove him entirely. His departure would be accompanied by that of several ambitions that Rumania cultivates and that its formal entry into the EU is not enough to guarantee.
The crisis involves a number of fronts. The USA feat the loss of a precious ally, especially in light of the fact that the new ‘Tariceanu Government’ has stated that it will remove its troops from Iraq within the year. The business community considers the political instability a threat to investments which, compared to 2006, are already in decline. Brussels, from where experts will be sent to Rumania over the next few days, fears a slowing of the reform process and is threatening the application of a clause that would halt the several million euros of structural funds that have been promised. In this ‘vacuum’ new and old nationalist parties, who are against the EU’s values, have found ample room for manoeuvre. Basescu’s voluntary resignation, which could be presented in the next few days, could reduce the length of the institutional crisis but would not eliminate a period of uncertainty and instability that is creating more worries for politicians than Bucharest is prepared to admit.
Elisabetta Sartorel
Taiwan: Independence through in direct means?
From 14 to 23 May the 60th Assembly of the countries belonging to the World Health Organization (WHO) will meet in Geneva. For the ‘rebel island’ it will be the tenth consecutive occasion in which to propose its membership. This year President Chen Shui-bian, a firm supporter of Taipei’s independence, has announced his intention to officially propose the name of ‘Taiwan’ instead of the ‘Republic of China’. Symbolically this is a gesture of considerable significance. China’s response was predictable. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, spokesperson announced the Republics strong opposition to the manoeuvre. It should not be forgotten that the current General Director of the WHO, the Hong Kong Chinese Margaret Chan, was elected to the top position only a year ago. As things stand Taiwan’s existence as a juridical body external to the People's Republic of China (and thus a sovereign state) is hard to imagine, this notwithstanding the ‘de facto’ claim to being so. Beijing’s repeated ‘warnings’, together with the ‘One China Policy’ sustained by the majority of the international community, make it improbable that Taiwan’s population can exit the particular ‘status quo’.
The strategy of acting via international organisations is that most used by Taiwan’s independence movement notwithstanding the current President’s dream of declaring independence once and for all. Taiwan is present in a number of international organisations, usually under the name of ‘Chinese Taipei’, and in some cases with observer status or as an associated member. The thrust towards becoming a permanent member, and the official use of the name ‘Taiwan’, could represent a step towards the island’s emancipation from Beijing.Almost certainly the People's Republic of China, however, will not limit itself to observing a similar evolution; in addition to this ‘friendly’ countries, such as the USA and Japan, even if ideologically closer to the island than to continental China, would be unlikely to alter a ‘status quo’ that, if broken, could bring about serious economic and political consequences.
Luca Alfieri
The strategy of acting via international organisations is that most used by Taiwan’s independence movement notwithstanding the current President’s dream of declaring independence once and for all. Taiwan is present in a number of international organisations, usually under the name of ‘Chinese Taipei’, and in some cases with observer status or as an associated member. The thrust towards becoming a permanent member, and the official use of the name ‘Taiwan’, could represent a step towards the island’s emancipation from Beijing.Almost certainly the People's Republic of China, however, will not limit itself to observing a similar evolution; in addition to this ‘friendly’ countries, such as the USA and Japan, even if ideologically closer to the island than to continental China, would be unlikely to alter a ‘status quo’ that, if broken, could bring about serious economic and political consequences.
Luca Alfieri
Turkey: the Presidential elections
The mandate of Turkey’s President, the 66 year old ex-judge Ahmet Necdet Sezer, is coming to an end. On 16 May Parliament will elect the eleventh President of the Turkish Republic. The institutional role does not hold any great political powers, rather duties are representative and institutional. The President has the power to block laws that are considered as being in conflict with the principals of the constitution and is the symbol the country’s secular basis as stipulated by Mustafà Kemal Atatürk in 1923. The possibility of the current Prime Minister, the pro-Islamic Recep Tayyip Erdogan, becoming a candidate could represent a motive for internal instability between the Parliament and the Army – the emblem of nationalism and secular authority.
Over the last few years Turkey, under Erdogan’s Government, has reached a series of important economic successes. The economy continues to be characterised by the agricultural sector which, however, according to recent statistics appears to be in decline in favour of the industrial sector. The services sector is in strong expansion, above all due to tourism. The good health of the Turkish economy is demonstrated by the 5,5% growth of GNP in the 2004/2005 period, and by 3,4% growth in 2006. in the energy sector Turkey represents an important node in the supply of the EU’s requirements and at the same time constitutes an ever more demanding market for energy. A pipeline passes through Turkey that supplies, on a daily basis, a million litres of petrol from the Caucuses to the Mediterranean. The growth of the Turkish industrial sector necessitates ever greater petrol supplies.
Should Erdogan be elected on 16 May there will be a strong internal conflict between Parliament-President and the Army that will effect the country’s economy in a negative fashion. Vice versa should the Premier renounce his eventual candidacy there will be further economic expansion due to greater political stability. The Nationalist opposition in Parliament could decide to offer political support to the majority should Erdogan decide against participating in the Presidential elections.
Gianfranco Brusaporci
Over the last few years Turkey, under Erdogan’s Government, has reached a series of important economic successes. The economy continues to be characterised by the agricultural sector which, however, according to recent statistics appears to be in decline in favour of the industrial sector. The services sector is in strong expansion, above all due to tourism. The good health of the Turkish economy is demonstrated by the 5,5% growth of GNP in the 2004/2005 period, and by 3,4% growth in 2006. in the energy sector Turkey represents an important node in the supply of the EU’s requirements and at the same time constitutes an ever more demanding market for energy. A pipeline passes through Turkey that supplies, on a daily basis, a million litres of petrol from the Caucuses to the Mediterranean. The growth of the Turkish industrial sector necessitates ever greater petrol supplies.
Should Erdogan be elected on 16 May there will be a strong internal conflict between Parliament-President and the Army that will effect the country’s economy in a negative fashion. Vice versa should the Premier renounce his eventual candidacy there will be further economic expansion due to greater political stability. The Nationalist opposition in Parliament could decide to offer political support to the majority should Erdogan decide against participating in the Presidential elections.
Gianfranco Brusaporci
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