The armed clashes continue in Somalia between Government forces, supported by Ethiopia, and the rebel militias. In the meantime the National Reconciliation Council (NRC) which ought to unite representatives from all of the factions has been postponed for the third time and is now scheduled for 15 July. There is still disagreement in regards to the choice of representatives: the donor countries would like to see an ‘inclusive’ approach, that is one the includes the moderate Islamic factions, while the Government would prefer a clan based representation. In the meantime the opposition – which includes the leaders of the Hawiye clan, Islamists, War Lords, dissidents, representatives of the Diaspora and civil society – seems to have created a form of leadership headed by the ex-President of Parliament, Sharif Hassan Sheick Adan, and by the ex-President of the Executive Committee of the Islamic Courts, Sheick Sherif Sheick Ahmed. From Eritrea the two leaders declared that they would boycott the NRC and at the same time organise a forum of the opposition in Qatar. All considered the extreme heterogeneous nature of the coalition is worthy of reflection, the group is held together by a ‘common enemy’ and not by any form of political program. All considered the situation seems devoid of any solution and difficulties are compounded by the scarce interest of the international community. The situation is that of an occupying power that wishes to retreat, a weak and debatable government whose only wish is to maintain power, and in the middle of all this a population subjected to chronic instability and insecurity and doubt as regards the future.

Giorgio Musso

The 25 years that have passed since the end of the Falklands (Malvinas) crisis have not contributed to easing tensions between Argentina and the United Kingdom, on the contrary the recent anniversary heightened them. Problems emerged as of February when the Crown invited President Nestor Kirchner to organise a joint celebration that had the objective of remembering those who fell during the crisis and bettering diplomatic ties. The Head of State refused, accusing the British of wishing to celebrate victory rather than honour the dead: to date the facts seem to prove him correct. The manifestations remembering the events of 1982 began in the United Kingdom on 13 June and the ‘climate’ appeared more of a celebration than a commemoration. Former Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, confirmed this when she declared that the events of a quarter century ago were “A great victory in a noble cause”. Argentina’s reaction was immediate: Kirchner declared that “They may have won the battle, given that they are a great power, but they will not take away from us the fact that we are right and that the Malvinas are Argentinean, and that by pacific means we will retake them”. The Chancellor, Jorge Taiana, who was preparing to visit New York to present the Committee of the United Nations with a proposal for de-colonialisation, was fully aligned with the President. In 1965 the UN had defined the case as one of colonialisation and invited the two countries to negotiate an agreement, an invitation that the United Kingdom had always declined.To date there does not seem to be any sign that the two nations are intent on dialogue, on the contrary the recent events have evidenced an ever greater fracture.

Lucia Conti

On the eve of the national political elections planned for the end of June, Papua New Guinea is living a happy moment as far as financial earnings are concerned. The State’s coffers have benefited considerably over the past twelve months thanks to revenue from energy resources; natural gas and petrol. With the price of petrol oscillating around 50 dollars a barrel the exports of crude, even if limited, have allowed the Government to accumulate precious financial resources. Papua New Guinea is amongst the world’s poorest countries and the excellent financial news at the moment of the elections is a double advantage: on the one hand presenting such positive results a few days from the elections, on the other launching a series of social and infrastructure programs thanks to the improvements to the public budget. The new and encouraging signs demonstrated by the energy market will probably induce the next Government to expand the sector. This will take place via foreign investments in the sectors of exploration (of new sites) and the development of the potential lof the existing offshore sites. The prime Minister, Michael Somare, who has reached the end of his five year term has recently formed a public company, Petromin PNG, tasked with managing national interests in the energy sector. Amongst the executive’s intentions at the end of its legislature is the will to guarantee the country better economic conditions in relations with the multinationals that use Papua New Guinea’s resources, and to play an important role in the negotiations and definition of new and important energy projects in Port Moresby and in the Pacific region.

Michele Tempera

In view of the 21-22 June Summit Foreign Ministers of the EU Member States tried, on 17 June, to overcome the last remaining obstacles to the new European Treaty. Efforts were in vain given the persistent opposition of Warsaw. Germany, which holds the current EU Presidency, wants to launch a new Inter-Governmental Conference (ICG) so as to arrive at a treaty that that makes internal decision making faster and more efficient. The Treaty would substitute the Constitutional Treaty that was rejected by France and Holland in 2005 and, due to its non-constitutional character, could be approved by national parliaments without recourse to referendums. The Polish President, Kaczynski, refuses, for the time being, to change his mind as regards the Union’s voting rules which Warsaw hopes to change. Kaczynski’s principal proposal is to change the rule whereby the ‘weight’ of a State’s vote is calculated according to the square root of its population. According to this method less populated countries than the ‘heavy weights’ (Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and –perhaps one day – Turkey) have less power.

Given that Poland has a rigid position in regards to the Euro-Russian partnership and is considered by many EU members as overly pro-American tensions between ‘old Europe’ and Warsaw have heightened. The Polish proposal has been received coldly by all apart from the Czech Republic and Polish intransigence risks damaging the German Presidency at a delicate moment: the re-launching of continental political integration. Merkel and Sarkozy, although having different positions, are pushing for a new European Treaty, one that overcomes the post-2005 stall, and are involved in a series of diplomatic activities with Warsaw – which is supported by Prague – in an attempt to fina a compromise before 21 June. It is probable that Paris, Berlin, Rome, and Madrid will have to make a ‘counter offer’ if they wish to bring Warsaw around and have the status quo in regards to voting accepted. The most delicate dossiers in this moment are those of strategic security and the enlargement of the EU.

Negotiatio0ns in Berlin and Warsaw could end up facilitating American anti-missile defence plans and cause a deterioration of Euro-Russian relations on security issues, and the Ukraine, given that Warsaw is pushing to integrate Kiev in the strategic-political-economic euro-Atlantic system.

Desk Europa

On Sunday 17 June the emergency Government led by Salam Fayyad and composed exclusively by independent Ministers was sworn-in in Ramallah. The new Executive, formed by President Abu Mazen immediately after dissolving the Government of National Unity, will have to obtain the recognition of the international community as the legitimate Palestinian authority and obtain the release of international funds.

After Hamas conquered the Gaza Strip the first counteroffensive by Fatah is of an institutional character: in the West Bank a PLO inspired and pro-western government was created, while in Gaza the Islamic movements spokespersons have announced that notwithstanding the ‘coup’ by Fatah, Ismail Haniyeh will remain the Prime Minister of the democratically elected Palestinian Government. The battle of rhetoric should not distract from the facts: over the last few days Hamas have expelled Fatah from the Gaza Strip through a military action, thus violating the Mecca Agreements on National Unity. It is difficult to understand which territory and which people will be governed by the new Government led by Fayyad. During the weekend the PNA’s Presidency declared the Hamas forces in the West Bank as outlaws. Thus two governments exist on two territories, a situation that is unlikely to change unless outside forces intervene. There is every likelihood that a humanitarian crisis will emerge in the Gaza Strip and the UN will be forced to adopt a resolution.

The sovereignty of the Fatah backed government in the West Bank does not seem threatened, given that it can rely on the support if the western nations and the military protection of Israel. It is more difficult to forecast what will happen to Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Islamic movement can count on the support of Iran and Syria, on well trained forces, and a considerable ideological impact, however, Hamas is heading towards political and economic isolation and will have to defend a vulnerable territory. Direct military intervention on the part of Israel (Bush and Olmert will meet this week) could be decisive: considering the high level of interdependence in local conflicts, it would be risky and could lead to grave regional consequences. The launching of Katyusha missiles on Israel from the Lebanon on Sunday seems to be an explicit sign.

Giovanni Faleg