During the G-4 meeting in Postdam - a dialogue forum between the United States, the European Union, Brazil and India - the negotiations for the Doha Round of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) were brought to a sudden halt. Last 21st June the representatives from Brazil and India announced their withdrawal from the negotiations as a form of protest against the USA and the EU, determined on maintaining aid to farmers and upon calling for a considerable opening up of the market in industrial products. With the decision the two emerging countries, whose economies are based on exports of agricultural products, raised consensus in other developing countries whose producers suffer from the high level of protection given to the agricultural sector in developed countries.

Despite the two countries' withdrawal, the failure of the Doha Round should not be taken for granted; Brazil and India have, however, stressed in a clear fashion the issue of agricultural aid and have played the role of "spokesmen" for the G-20 emerging countries' position. The governments of the other Member States of the Mercado Comùn del Sur (Mercosur) supported Brazil's position and announced they are willing to use the same strategy during coming meetings within the multilateral organisations. As concerns US and EU business counterparts, they appeared somewhat perturbed by the position of Brazil and India as they had placed their hopes in the Postdam meeting as a way to conclude the Doha Round, which is blocked mainly because of controversies on agricultural issues, a sensitive subject for most of the WTO Member States.

Despite the failure of the G-4 meeting, commercial officials will keep on working on the definition of the agreement's technical aspects. Postdam marks, however, the failure of the G4 forum, criticised also by the G-90 - gathering most of the WTO developing countries - as negotiations have not been carried out with enough transparency and with a view to favouring participation.

Roberto Stefanini

The Moldavian President, the only one among the other leaders of the four Member States (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) to have deserted the annual meeting of the Organisation for Democracy and Economic Development GUAM held last 18-19 June in Baku, flew to Moscow on Friday 22nd to meet his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Major issues tackled during the meeting were: economic and commercial relations between the two countries and, with greater discretion, the solution to the crisis in Transnistria.

Voronin had placed this meeting at the top of his agenda long ago. His absence at the summit in Baku, justified by his participation to the Council of Cooperation EU-Moldova in Luxembourg, has raised perplexities. The GUAM was created 10 years ago as a pro-western forum to counterbalance the role of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CSI) in the area and Russia, since the beginning, regarded it with suspicion not only because it committed to enhancing the Black Sea as an energy corridor between the Caspian Sea and Europe to the detriment of Russia but also because it focused particularly on the issue of separatism. Voronin prefers a face-to-face approach with Putin when tackling the issue. In April a "secret agreement" between the two seemed to be leading to the reunification of Moldova and Transnistria in exchange for the right, for Russia, to keep its troops in the area for another 10 years at least, even though this would mean breaching international commitments (Istanbul Commitments, 1999).

In Baku the GUAM proposed the creation of its own peace force to replace the Russian's. A few days before this, during the Vienna Conference on the CFE Treaty (Conventional Forces in Europe), the NATO countries had decided the withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria and their replacement with an international contingent was an essential prerequisite for the CFE ratification. The entry into force of the CFE is a priority for Russia as it is the presence of its troops in the strategic outpost against the advance of EU and NATO. By deserting the GUAM summit, Voronin distanced himself from it in order not to lose the trust Russia had just re-placed in him. The new centrality of Transnistria and the unusual firmness of the Western countries' positions put in question the "secret agreement" desired by the Kremlin, showing its lack of feasibility. Before an acceptable solution for all the involved parties is found on the status of Transnistria, it is likely months or maybe years of negotiations still have to go by.

Elisabetta Sartorel

The first round of Presidential elections in the Republic of Congo was held on 24th July.The first data show a low voter turnout while the National Electoral Commission suggested some mistakes in the voting procedures might have been made.

During the last few weeks the scenario has been characterised by heated political strife between the Government forces, lead by the Parti Congolais du Travail (PTC) of the President Denis Sassou-Nguesso - who has ruled since 1997 - and the opposition forces of the ANR, Alliance pour une Nouvelle République, gathering the parties that have historically been against the government: the Union pour la Démocratie et la République, UDR, the Union panafricaine pour la Démocratie Sociale, UPADS (of the former President Pascal Lissouba) and the Rassemblement pour la Démocratie et le Développement, RDD.

The weeks preceding the vote were particularly critical since the ACR, other parties and other organisations of the civil society had accused the government of interfering with the electoral process and had denounced the possibility the results of the elections might have already been decided thanks to gerrymandering and intimidations. The ACR denounced also the ill-concealed attempt of the government's coalition to co-opt in its political project ("Nouvelle Esperance") groups that were once part of the opposition, such as the Mouvement Congolais pour la Démocratie et le Développement Intégral (MDCCI) of the former Prime Minister Bernard Kolélas, who has recently come back in the country from exile thanks to an amnesty.

According to the electoral commission the final results should be available within one week even though run-off elections are to be held next July 22nd. The desertion of about 40 parties from the elections causes great concern for the political-institutional development of the country, especially in the view of 2009 Presidential elections. The radicalisation of political strife is a factor of potential internal destabilisation that needs to be tackled with greater care by the international community in order not to return to the situation in 1997-2002, a period of civil war that opposed the same actors of the current crisis.

Africa Desk

On 23rd June, during a NATO operation in the south-eastern province of Paktika, a missile hit a village in the area of Northern Waziristan, in Pakistan. Two houses were hit, 10 civilians killed and 14 injured. A spokesman for the Isaf mission, John Thomas, has acknowledged the killing of Pakistani civilians. The accident has taken place in a delicate and difficult moment for the troops of the Atlantic Alliance. A few days before, during other operations, dozens of civilians were killed, including 7 children who died in the bombing of a madrass, where militants were believed to be hiding.

The repeated massacres are one of the main reasons for the Afghan population’s disaffection with the coalition soldiers, especially in the southern part of the country. During recent months the Taliban seem to have re-organised themselves thanks also to a situation of semi-anarchy in the areas bordering Pakistan and in the Pakistani regions of Waziristan and Baluchistan. These zones are under the control of local tribal and ethnic groups, allied with the Taliban. The Musharraf’s Government has, so far, been unable to eradicate these areas of the resistance.

A large-scale intensification of the fighting opposing NATO troops and guerrillas seems likely. There are two main signs: on the one hand the fact that the Taliban have re-established their contacts with the Northern Pashtun communities, especially in Kunduz, during the last weeks. In the short term a new front of the Isaf forces might be created with the risk of losing more and more ground in the South. On the other hand, in the South especially, a growing part of the population supports the rebels; this is creating the optimal conditions to carry out effective guerrilla operations and the conflict seems to be destined to last for a long time.

Stefano Torelli

After a series of declarations by the Palestinian President Abu Mazen, who accused "foreign elements" to have given decisive support to Hamas' actions in the Gaza strip, at the end of last week the chief of Fatah's intelligence services, Tawfiq al-Tirawi, explicitly accused the Islamic Republic of Iran of having played a central role in the Hamas' occupancy of Gaza. Tirawi declared that dozens of Hamas' members have been trained in Iran for over a year, that they were given money and weapons through the tunnels not to fight Israel but the Palestinian National Authority. Tirawi's declarations are, moreover, confirmed by the Israeli internal secret services; the latter published an analysis some months ago where they declared that the Islamic movement of Hamas would send an unknown number of soldiers to Iran where they would receive military training in order to weaken Fatah.

In Iran, on the other hand, the Baztab News agency published an article where it strongly criticised Hamas claiming that the Gaza coup was a serious and worrying mistake. This is, however, an unusual position in the Iranian news world which gives its support to Hamas; the latter officially receives moreover financial aid from the government itself. The Batztab News' article raised in Iran the issue whether the decision on the Gaza's coup was really pushed by Iran. Egypt has raised the same issue and it has voiced concerns about this decision; the country also accused Iran of having encouraged Hamas' coup de main against Fatah in the Gaza strip: this action could destabilise the Egyptian security itself and that of the Arabic world and could instigate anti-government actions by Islamic militant groups, such as the Muslim Brothers in Egypt.

It seems clear that logistically, as concerns training and weapons' supply, Iran is an important ally for Hamas; the problem is whether the Hamas coup, which may well have been supported by Iran, is a veritable victory for Hamas or if it is only a way to make an enemy of the rest of the Arabic world in a "game" where trust towards Iran also is questioned.

Donatella Scatamacchia