Three months before March's elections, the Pretoria negotiations, mediated by the South-African President Thabo Mbeki and ordered by the Community for the Development of South Africa (SADC), are mainly dealing with the possible postponement of the same electoral event. On one hand, Mugabe's ZANU-PF intends to follow the original programme notwithstanding the large number of anomalies, inefficiencies and threats made towards the electorate recorded during the registration procedures; on the other hand, Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC would prefer a delay of the elections in order to allow for the complete implementation of the agreements reached during the long mediation. A difficult situation of stalemate looms, considering the well-known will of MDC that has been recently confirmed by his Secretary for International Affairs, to boycott the elections failing a more favourable opening by the leading party.

The Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and the Media Law are the main legislative provisions at the centre of the controversy which have long been used by ZANU-PF as a tool against the opposition. The most important pressures from the MDC the rapid publication of a new Constitution and the political independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), presumed to be necessary to prevent the abstention of Tsavangirai's faction from the electoral course and the following international condemnation for lack of freedom and transparency, in the wake of the events of 2002.

The intervention of the SADC seems now necessary as never before, both in the mediation lead by South-Africa (where ZUMA, the new leader of the ANC, is supposed to be already in contact with the MDC, after having criticized the quiet diplomacy long adopted by his predecessor Mbeki), and in the supervision of the regular course of the nearby elections, by binding the future regional economic contributions to their democratic issues. After having considered the fractures within the opposition party, a united response in favour of democratic transition seems to be, still now, the better solution to get out of the deep economic and social crisis of Zimbabwe (the rate of actual inflation has been estimated as higher than 20,000%); however, this solution seems to be also the most improbable, considering Mugabe's reluctance in sharing the reins of power, due to the support ZANU-PF gave him by once again confirming his charge as leader of the party and candidate in the presidential elections.

Massimo Corsini

On January, 11th the FARC hostages Carla Rojas and Consuelo Gonzales de Perdomo were released in Venezuela after almost a 5 year detention. Caracas mediation, after the unsuccessful Operation Emmanuel – for the release of Carla Rojas' son, believed to be under the control of guerrillas while he actually was in a childcare centre – played a key role in the release and could also be a good opportunity for Hugo Chavez to increase his international credibility as a mediator.Actually, almost all the countries paid compliments to Chavez after the release, even Colombia whose relationship with Venezuela has been uptight since the President's inauguration in Miraflores Palace, when many experts were foreseeing a resolutive intervention for Ingrid Betancourt too.However, the President's declarations and requests damaged his image, affecting relations with the other countries, even in the case of governments politically close to Venezuela. This is because, on one hand, he declared that FARC has to be cancelled from the list of terrorist organizations of the European Union. On the other hand, he suggested that it should be considered as a regular army that operates on Colombian territory.

Argentina, Ecuador the Venezuelan internal opposition disagreed with those statements. In Bogotà, besides refusing the proposal, some suspicion about Chavez's real intention started to spread. According to many representatives of the government, with FARC Chavez aimed to weaken the incumbent government and the rumors about the presumed payment of a ransom for the two women contributed to reinforce the theory of a Venezuelan indirect system of support to the organization.Hugo Chavez's international image is hanging in the balance between those who recognise his merit in mediation and those who believe that his efforts are intended just to extend the role of Venezuela in the continent. For sure, a mismatch in political ideas such as the one of Venezuela and Colombia could make it easier for FARC to negotiate future releases and conditions related to the “best bidder”, making it even more difficult to normalize the internal situation of Colombia.

Desk Americas

The nationalist party Kuomintang (KMT), thanks to 72% of consensus obtained during the consultations of Saturday January 12th, has gained 81 of the 113 seats of the Taiwanese Parliament. The Democratic Progression Party, on the contrary, won only 27 seats. It's a hard blow for the party of the President, Chen Shui-bian, mainly in anticipation of the presidential elections expected for March 22th.

Although no official comment has been given by Beijing, some evident signs of appreciation have come from the Chinese Popular Republic, which considers the return of the nationalists as the overcoming of the island's independence. At this point, in fact, the failure of the popular advisory referendum concerning the candidacy of Taiwan for a seat in the United Nations becomes very probable, which will take place alongside the presidential elections and which is considered to be an attempt at formal independence.

Frank Hsieh, the candidate of the DPP in the presidential elections and current leader of the democratic party, has reaffirmed the DPP's support of Taiwan's movement towards independence, started by Chen Shui-bian, but he has rejected some of the strictest provisions adopted by the President (for exemple the reduction of economic contracts with China).

But Ying-jeou, ex-Mayor of Taipei and candidate of the KMT, has promised to obtain a “peace agreement” with Beijing, if he is elected as President. But Ying-jeou is also willing to re-establish direct transport links to and from the motherland, postal and commercial connections and to re-open the island to tourists coming from the Popular Republic.

Desk Asia

USA President George W. Bush chose Israel as the first stage of his journey to the Middle East. Israel's major representatives welcomed him in a friendly way, willing to remark the existence of a good relationship between the two countries. In his speeches, Bush remarked several times on Israel's need to make concessions, particularly concerning the abandonment of the West Bank and the dismantling of illegal colonies.

On one hand, Bush's visit to the region in this particular period aims to reassure the allies about opposition to Iran. On the other hand, it is just a way to promote the continuation of negotiations. These two elements are clearly connected, in fact USA President made it understood how USA support to Israel is dependent on (or depends on) a real cooperation in peace process. At the same time, a bigger military effort by the USA can be considered as a compensation to Israel's effort in the pursuit of a satisfactory agreement with Palestine. Therefore, Bush's message is a sort of disguised ultimatum to the Israelian right-wing warmonger, meaning the USA is no longer prepared to help Israel unconditionally.


This warning should reinforce the weak authority of Olmert in negotiations, when the right wing and more reluctant members of the government would have to choose whether to accept aids against Iran or keep the land settlements. Bush's plea is not likely to obtain any immediate response due to the strong opposition of government members such as Lieberman and Yishai to any form of concession in this field. However, the international situation could cause the raising of radical opinions, particularly if Iran should keep on pursuing its nuclear programme without restrictions making Israel feel threatened.This is because Israel has very low chances to weaken Iran, so many of the warmongers could choose to agree with Bush's conditions in order to get the military support required.

Lorenzo Nannetti



Translation by Elisa Frasca and Viviana Palermo