The New Delhi summit on April 8-9 is the first multilateral encounter between heads of state and the governments of India and Africa that will give birth to a new and expansive partnership with a clear economic and political significance. Participants will include representatives of the African Union, local economic organizations as well as over 12 African countries which will individually represent themselves.

The official objective of the summit is to reinforce the economic partnership between the two world regions and to promote new collaborative relationships. From India’s perspective, the forum in New Delhi constitutes the opportunity, not only to open new channels of communication with African countries with which India has nurtured or intends to nurture its own interests, but also to adopt a reciprocally advantageous shared trade strategy that will assure India access to African markets, and in particular those dealing in hydrocarbons and technology. From an African perspective, the summit is a natural landing point for a political partnership that, for the last ten years, has been aimed toward the Far East. Moreover, by means of the economic powers in Asia (China, Japan and, of course, India), Africa is searching for new commercial outlets and, above all, investments, financing and agreements of economic collaboration. This strategy will permit Africa to expand the spectrum of their political and commercial choices and, in India's case, to present a political and economic entity in full growth interested in energy sources as well as in other sectors which have become a priority for the development of African economic systems (science and technology, research, vocational training, health and administrative systems).

During the summit, a plan similar to that which China passed in November 2006 at the China-Africa Cooperation Forum should be adopted to accomplish these aims (see: (AP) Cina: Pechino, capitale dell’Africa). The India summit, therefore, constitutes New Delhi’s response to China’s rampant economic policy aimed at the African Continent, a response that will not leave the rich and promising African markets to China alone.

Alessio Fabbiano

The Atlantic Alliance summit in Bucharest concluded with important indications on the decline of US soft power and on the inability of the soon to end Bush administration to convene its European allies in a coalition favourable to the expansion of the Atlantic Alliance toward Eastern Europe. The Ukraine and Georgia have not signed the Membership Action Plan, and Russia’s veto opposing the two country’s entrance into NATO has impeded the European Union’s adherence to the Washington project. The contrariety of Ukrainian public opinion to the NATO alliance and the current conflicts between Georgia and the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossezia that support independence, have been the formal reasons pushing France and Italy toward skepticism while Germany, on the other hand, to an open declaration that a NATO alliance with the two nations would not be possible until certain issues were resolved.

The US inability to gather its European allies in a favourable coalition for the expansion of NATO toward the East is to be interpreted as a decline in US powers of persuasion and, at the same time, as a definitive confirmation of the Kremlin’s capability to assert further pressure on the European Community. The positions taken by Italy, France and even more so, by Germany, regarding the possible expansion of NATO, seem dictated by their apprehension in harming the interests of a country (Russia) that controls the European energy market.

The reinforcement of the military contingents deployed in Afghanistan and the NATO adherence to the US project regarding the European missile defence system seem to be decisions compensating the impediment of the Membership Action Plan for the Ukraine and Georgia. Both issues could, however, end up being yet another failure for Washington. Currently, in fact, only France has given a definite response to the request for the implementation of troops deployed to engage the Taliban. In addition, the issue regarding the European Space Shield might be blocked by both a veto by the Kremlin and by the time necessary for its construction, time too limited, according to some, to allow negotiations and the signing of agreements before the end of George W. Bush’s term as president.

The decline of US soft power in Europe coincides with outgoing Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ability to influence projects and agreements that deal with NATO and Eastern Europe. The results of the upcoming November elections should constitute the definitive basis for a change in diplomatic relations between the European Union and the US, with the possibility that the Washington-Paris and Berlin-Moscow axes could define a situation where potential conflicts could lead to a strategic realignment with other countries.

Simone Comi

The tension in Sri Lanka between government forces and the Tamil Tigers has reignited in recent months, following the decision of Colombo authorities to undertake a hard line concerning the rebel group, which since the 70’s, has conducted an armed conflict in demand of autonomy for Tamil Eelam. A suicide attack, undertaken during the inaugural ceremony of a marathon organised at the gates of the capital, caused the death of the Minister of Transportation Jeyaraj Fernandopulle and eleven others, with a dozen injured. Authorities immediately condemned the episode. The action was attributed to Tamil rebels who had already hit the government hard with terrorist attacks aimed at destabilising its framework, an action that succeeded in killing yet another government minister, D.M. Dassanayake.

The response of the Sri Lankan armed forces was instant. In the morning hours, a military operation led by air support destroyed a rebel training camp in a north Mankulam stronghold where, according to government sources, yet another terrorist attack was being prepared.

The worsening relationship between the government and the rebels, following the January decision in Colombo to put an end to a ceasefire that had lasted six months and to opt instead for a hard line of action regarding the Tamil terrorists, appears destined to deteriorate further. The strategic and logistic abilities of the Tamil Tigers seem much stronger and better organized, as was demonstrated by the attacks that hit the heart of the government. The government, limited to terrorist ground and incapable of protecting its own territory, has led to the belief that the objective of authorities to defeat the rebels by the end of the year is optimistic.

Lidia Iero

During the second day of the NATO summit in Bucharest, another strategic plan of the Isaf mission in Afghanistan was approved. It envisions a long term international military commitment and the deployment of military reinforcements and equipment. The force that has been employed so far, by means of a UN mandate, consists of 47,000 troops. France has promised to deploy a battalion comprised of between 800-1000 men who will be positioned in the east, the region under the command of US forces. This will permit the redistribution of US military contingents to the south, joining Canadian forces in the region of Kandahar.

The danger of a crisis that could have entrapped Canada will therefore be averted. It was on January 29 of this year, in fact, that Canada’s prime minister, Stephen Harper, announced that his government would only persevere in the mission until 2011 if there was increased support from other members of the Atlantic Alliance. Canada has lost 81 soldiers and one diplomat, the highest death percentage yet recorded in comparison to any other NATO member.

At the NATO summit, the deployment method of available human resources was also examined, above all, as a means to train Afghan troops and to attain the formation of a veritable army of 80,000 men by the year 2010. Next June at the Paris Conference, in addition to discussion on the rebuilding of Afghanistan, the NATO strategy to draw up a real mission exit plan for the international military contingents will also be broached. Although not yet approved, the plan would anticipate the reaching of objectives and the attainment of Afghan military proficiency levels, allowing these units to autonomously manage military actions currently conducted by Isaf forces.

Lucia Merlino

Over the weekend, the media in the Middle-East repeatedly reported news of troop movements on the Israeli-Syrian border. Both armies have reportedly put military escalation into effect with the deployment of a massive number of ground troops. Both Damascus and Jerusalem have denied such reports, but the tension between the two remains high and the situation seems to recall the suspicious atmosphere caused by the Israeli attack on a Syrian site on September 6. On that occasion, the Israeli Air Force bombed a building that Damascus was reportedly using for the advancement of a clandestine nuclear programme.

In addition to the September incursion, it is possible that Israel might have conducted yet another action of significant relevance in Syria last February. It deals with the assassination undertaken in Damascus of one of Hezbollah’s most important leaders, Mughniyyeh, who was responsible for the major part of Shiite attacks in Lebanon and abroad. Both Syria and Hezbollah have accused Israeli secret services of the assassination. Things being the way they are, Israel is ever more worried of a response from the Party of God, a response that, according to Hezbollah “modus operandi”, comes to fruition after only a few weeks (also out of respect for the necessary 40 days mourning). Regarding the issue, Olmert has warned Assad that the responsibility for any action of revenge taken by Hezobollah against Israeli targets, either at home or abroad, will also partially fall on Damascus. The fear of an imminent attack in response to the Mughniyyeh assassination, also taking into account the consequences of such an event in relation to an escalation of crisis in the region, could explain the movements of both armies toward their borders.

In recent days, the Israeli government has yet again raised accusations regarding a possible nuclear collaboration between Syria, Iran and North Korea. This factor also contributes to the maintaining of an Israeli heightened state of alert, despite the fact that an armed conflict is not considered likely. Another consideration is that Barak is using the escalation as an internal means of appeasing pressures by public opinion and by a faction of Labourists (led by ex head of the party, Peretz) calling for an increase in security. At the same time, destabilisation of the Assad regime could lead Jerusalem to face another possibly more hostile and unknown regime. The Israeli government must also take into account the potential escalation on the Palestinian front, with Hamas intensifying rocket attacks and turning attention away from the situation in the Gaza Strip (whose conditions are becoming more and more critical) and toward Israel.

Stefano Torelli


Translation by Marco Zanelli